Andrew Walter Marshall, a former strategist at the RAND Corporation who served as head of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment from its founding in 1973 until his retirement in 2015, died last month at the age of 97. This site uses cookies to improve your user experience. — (Drew paper ; no. Taken at face value, these estimates suggested that Russia was far more efficient at generating military power. To this end, it had deployed an enormous air defense system, primarily to defend against American aircraft. But by the early 1970s, Marshall, then a member of Henry Kissinger’s National Security Council staff, had developed the intellectual foundation for net assessments. Marshall brought these insights to the May Group, a research collective formed in the 1960s with Harvard Professor Ernest May, his colleague Richard Neustadt, a small group of other distinguished colleagues, and a young student rapporteur, Graham Allison. China Net wholesale - Select 2021 high quality Net products in best price from certified Chinese Plastic Net manufacturers, Steel Net suppliers, wholesalers and factory on Made-in-China.com Shares 3. The accomplishments of the office are legendary. If this were so, then the military balance would likely continue shifting in the Soviets’ favor. Marshall, Andrew W., 1921– 2.United States. “I asked them what they were lacking. The pursuit of transformation, affiliated with the concept known as a Revolution in Military Affairs, became associated with the failed tenure of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and was publicly dropped as a central organizing concept of the military for that reason. After the Carter administration canceled the B-1 bomber program in 1977, Marshall urged defense secretary Harold Brown to “stay in the bomber business.” American nuclear missiles could strike the Soviets far more effectively than bombers, Marshall conceded, but U.S. policymakers needed to look at the bigger picture: Soviet Russia had the world’s longest border and a repressive regime determined to control access to its territory. We are now entering another such period, one in which the contributions of the Office of Net Assessment will be needed every bit as much as they have in the past.”, The United States Needs to Think Regionally to Win, How Alarmism Undermines American Strategy, The New Historical Memory Reshaping Chinese Nationalism, How Biden Can Learn From History in Real Time, Get in-depth analysis delivered right to your inbox, From the They didn’t have an answer,” Rep. Adam Smith told…, WASHINGTON: The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace just released what a spokesman calls the “the first and only unclassified strategic net assessment of the future security dynamic between China, Japan, and the United States-including relative military capabilities and domestic and external variables.” For those who don’t wallow deeply in the Pentagon’s unique world, a net…, WASHINGTON: Transformation is back! Scenario-based planning will help identify key asymmetries between the two sides, so that U.S. advantages can be exploited and weaknesses mitigated. Casting net assessment : Andrew W. Marshall and the epistemic community of the Cold War / John M. Schutte, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF. Compra Present Day China: A Net Assessment. Today’s Pentagon no longer has to keep pace with Soviet Russia, but Marshall’s insights into the fundamental drivers and measures of military power will continue to serve Washington well as it enters a new age of high-tech warfare and confronts rising revisionist powers such as China. They discuss the White House's new China strategy and debate whether the strategy matches President Trump's own views on U.S.-China relations. It should no doubt begin by exploring China’s geopolitical objectives and its portfolio of current and potential future allies, asking how these might challenge core U.S. security interests. 16) Includes bibliographical references. DOI: 10.1177/0002716284476001003 Corpus ID: 28383280. The Department of Defense made public this week its annual report to Congress on China's military developments, shedding some light on information-based capabilities including cyber, electromagnetic spectrum operations and space operations. SPOTLIGHT →, SPOTLIGHT: The Pacific Cloud: Deterrence, Collaboration & Security →, Multimedia Report: The 4th Domain: Military Space. Largely drowned out by the Kavanaugh SCOTUS controversy, Melanie, Chris, and Bryan give this important speech due consideration, to include administration views on Taiwan, China’s defense buildup, and its growing global influence. Click here to learn more. Given that the majority of the Chinese public participated in this process only marginally, the inability to sustain this model has caused significant fragmentation, as before. Marshall challenged the CIA’s narrative, eventually persuading the intelligence community that the cost of the Soviet military buildup was substantially higher and Russia’s economy significantly smaller than generally believed. This is an explosive and topical book about the one threat that is exercising the minds of security planners the world over - the looming threat from a rising and increasingly assertive China. The central government can also impose direct federal rule known as President's Rule. ISBN 978-1-58566-240-1 (alk. But he hoped to reduce uncertainty where possible while searching for sources of U.S. advantage and rival weakness that could be exploited. The American response was complex. Without it, the defense strategy and program—the prescription—might end up focusing on the wrong problem. The point was made. Automate The Complex: Network Automation Enables Military Interoperability And Agility. The assessments did, however, have defining characteristics. The first post–Cold War net assessment, published in 1992, triggered a debate on the “revolution in military affairs”—the way that new technologies were transforming the character of warfare. Net Assessment: Playing the China Card. For services available in Azure China, see Service availability and roadmaps of Azure China . March 7, 2019. What should a net assessment of the current U.S.-Chinese rivalry look like? Sign up for the Breaking Defense newsletter. Mentoring others became one of Marshall’s most satisfying endeavors. This means that demographics, domestic social stability, environmental degradation, and long-term economic growth matter just as much as more obvious developments in arms production and dual-use technologies. Sort of. The first was the threat of follow-on attacks, potentially including limited nuclear attacks. In this CRESSTCON’18 plenary session, Current Practices in Evaluation and Assessment in China, panelists from Beijing Normal University will discuss contemporary issues related to technology, assessment, and evaluation in China.Check out these exciting presenters below and then come see them in person at CRESSTCON’18!. Largely drowned out by the Kavanaugh SCOTUS controversy, Melanie, Chris, and Bryan give this important speech due consideration, to include administration views on Taiwan, China’s defense buildup, and its growing global influence. The Russians would be left with less money to invest in offensive capabilities, such as tank armies. When referring to publicly available content for Azure global services, make sure to adapt the steps or customize any sample code that specifies settings for Azure global services. By the mid-1980s, such cost-imposing “competitive strategies,” as Marshall called them, had become a centerpiece of U.S. defense strategy. China’s Military and the U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment. Net assessment, alternatively, is sometimes defined in terms of the Moscow no longer just had superior conventional forces; it had also reached a rough nuclear parity with Washington. Registration or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Health Risk Assessment Li Yanfang . Marshall’s career began at the RAND Corporation in the late 1940s, a time when intellectual titans such as the Cold War theorists Herman Kahn and Albert Wohlstetter were walking the think tank’s halls and wrestling with the conundrums of the infant nuclear age. Twice, however, his office was at risk of being marginalized by administrations that had yet to appreciate the value of his work. The second and more strategic threat was al Qaeda's overall goal, which was to recreate an Islamic caliphate. Last year while in Japan for a meeting with senior defense and military leaders, the question most often posed to me was, “How is Yoda?” The questions were in reference to the nickname given to Andrew Marshall, arguably the foremost defense strategist of the past sixty years, who passed away this week at the…, WASHINGTON: When the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee went to talk with the almost mystical Pentagon gang known as the Office of Net Assessment, they told him America can’t afford to execute the strategy we’re pursuing. Thus, net assessment is not systems analysis. “I’d rather have decent answers to the right questions than great answers to irrelevant questions,” he told his staffers. Unclassified Net Assessment of China, ... Endowment for International Peace just released what a spokesman calls the “the first and only unclassified strategic net assessment of … Tutta colpa dei debiti. Its immedi… Parsons is playing a key role in the U.S. Air Force’s Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS), which collects and fuses information in new ways that will enable the Army’s JADC2 vision. SPEDIZIONE GRATUITA su ordini idonei The future security and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region may very well be defined by the content of this assessment. Unclassified Net Assessment of China, US And Japan Released By Carnegie . Perhaps the enduring value of Marshall’s work is best judged by its principal customers. The concept was simple yet profound. Allison also cited the military historian Roberta Wohlstetter’s seminal work, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision—which was inspired by none other than Marshall. Andrew Marshall at the Pentagon, January 2015, ANDREW F. KREPINEVICH, JR., served in the Office of Net Assessment from 1989 to 1993. Despite his aversion to publicity and the innocuous title of the office he led, Marshall stands among the most consistent and perceptive contributors to U.S. national security and defense strategy since the United States emerged as a global power nearly 80 years ago. In his mind, analysts had to be careful not to press for actionable instructions too quickly, lest this bias for action corrupt objective analysis and wind up undermining the entire undertaking. publishers of In one of his most influential projects, Marshall assessed the relative burden that the United States’ and Russia’s military investments were imposing on their respective economies. Whose side was time on? Marshall rejected any notion that the outcome of a war could be predicted in advance. The new office will, director Dan Flynn told me, assess what other intelligence agencies around the world are doing and why, what the most effective technologies will be to cope with those changes, how the world is changing strategically and make recommendations to the Director of National Intelligence. They were holistic, taking into account factors such as demographics, domestic unrest, and organizational culture. Put in an American context, al Qaeda wanted to create a transnational "Islamic" state that, by definition, would in the long run be able to threaten U.S. power. Perhaps most sobering were CIA reports that the Russians were not only outpacing U.S. military production by a wide margin but doing so at much lower cost. “Now last October, a key session of the Communist Party of China drew a 15-year roadmap for China’s modernization, and at the World Economic Forum last January, President Xi said that China is on course to finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and that China will work with other countries to build an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world,” she said. Even in this august group, one colleague described Marshall as “first among equals.” At RAND, Marshall questioned the assumption, common at the time, that states made decisions just like a rational, value-maximizing individual would. The letter offers a fitting epitaph. His aim was to find a better measure of military capability than more quantitative methods such as systems analysis tended to yield. China's Political Reforms: A Net Assessment @article{Lieberthal1984ChinasPR, title={China's Political Reforms: A Net Assessment}, author={Kenneth G. Lieberthal}, journal={The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science}, year={1984}, volume={476}, pages={19 - 34} } The Last Warrior: Andrew Marshall and the Shaping of Modern American Defense Strategy, Women This Week: Women Soldiers in Saudi Arabia, As Crisis Deepens in Ethiopia, Need for Committed Diplomatic Response Grows, The Link Between Foreign Languages and U.S. National Security, Aung San Suu Kyi’s Major Speech on Rakhine State, Creating a State Department Office for American State and Local Diplomacy, Paywall-free reading of new articles and a century of archives, Unlock access to iOS/Android apps to save editions for offline reading, Six issues a year in print, online, and audio editions. Marshall scrupulously avoided setting down any rigid guidelines for net assessments, making his a living methodology that has been refined over time. Describing what net assessment isn’t, is a useful thing to do. As the modernization of existing nuclear arsenals, the spread of nuclear weapons, and the diffusion of new technologies make the nuclear landscape more complex, the time is ripe for a fresh examination of the nuclear balance. Want the latest defense industry news? But one thing is certain: the United States and Japan must recognize that Hard problems like anti-submarine warfare , electromagnetic warfare , and air and missile defense are expensive missions ripe for disruption by new technologies and operational concepts. Any net assessment will therefore have to grapple with the factors that might shift the military balance in the decades ahead. Although he was a political appointee in a city that too often values self-promoters over people of substance, Marshall was invited to stay on by Democratic and Republican administrations alike—a testament to the respect he commanded within the national security world. Foreign Affairs, Published by the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a co-author, with Barry D. Watts, of, by Guest Blogger for Women Around the World. paper) 1. Podcasts - Net Assessment. As early as 1987, he argued that that a rising China would be a more significant rival in the decades to come than Soviet Russia. Progress was slow. proaches. Functional assessments focused on a particular aspect of the competition, such as the U.S.-Soviet nuclear balance. The Success of JADC2 Depends Upon Relevant and Actionable Data. Above all, they did not avoid uncertainty; they embraced it. The United States wasn’t falling behind. Al Qaeda posed two challenges to the United States. The economic dysfunction was managed socially in Japan. variables likely to influence the security behavior of China, Japan, and the United States through 2030; hence the use of the phrase “strategic net assessment.” A strategic net assessment of the long-term challenge posed to Japan and the U.S.-Japan alliance by China’s growing military presence in the Western Pacific offers several As the Cold War neared its end, Marshall already had his eye on distant horizons. ), the type and quality of their equipment, as well as their training and military doctrines will all come to bear on this analysis. China-India in 2030: A Net Assessment party or coalition is able to form a government. He was equally prescient in forecasting a new era of precision warfare, a prediction confirmed in the Gulf War four years later. Please enable JavaScript for this site to function properly. States did not choose the most effective solutions; they usually chose ones that were simply good enough. In his own work, Marshall increasingly turned his attention to the military balance of power. The United States, he argued, should pursue strategies that imposed disproportionate costs on the Russians. Become a subscriber for unrestricted access. When the Obama administration considered shutting down the office in 2013, six former defense secretaries signed a letter opposing the plan. Anonymity outside the halls of the Pentagon never bothered Marshall, as he always had access to what he considered to be his primary audience: senior defense policy-makers. And he was best known for developing a strategic planning methodology—net assessment—that was so difficult to grasp that many simply defined it as “what Andy Marshall does.”. On this episode, Chris Preble and Melanie Marlowe welcome Zack Cooper as the new co-host of Net Assessment. Working with his colleague Joseph Loftus, he argued that governments were so large and complex that no single central authority had enough time or information to make optimal decisions. China uses white papers, speeches, and articles as its means to publicly communicate policy and strategy.