And the more swiftly they can act, the shorter any lockdown-style policies need to be. Jocelyn Solis-Moreira is a journalist specializing in health and science news. In Germany, by contrast, more than 80 percent did so, but look at the similar trajectories of the daily Covid death toll in both countries from the summer of 2020 through March of this year. Study: States With Mask Mandates Saw Fewer Summertime COVID Cases. For the period of April 1 through October 31, 2020, less than half of states had issued a mandate for mask wearing in public and nearly a third had not made any recommendation. For mask adherence, the cut-off values for the low and high quartiles were 31% and 46% in June, 53% and 72% in July, 55% and 71% in August, and 55% and 68% in September. The index comes from Oxfords Blavatnik School of Government, where researchers track the policies or lack thereof governments use to contain the virus and protect residents, such as contact tracing, mask mandates and restrictions on businesses and gatherings. The announcement comes one day after Joe Biden pleaded with state and local leaders to maintain or reinstate mask mandates, due to recent alarming trends in US coronavirus case numbers. Across the country, indoor mask requirements in blue states are falling like dominoes as COVID cases drop. Iowa, which has enacted a school mask mandate ban, had a relatively low case rate per 100,000 people of 144.7. Rhode Island. Instead, it analyzed the connection between mask mandate policies and the rate of new county-level coronavirus cases and deaths. "At first blush," Jha says, it "looks like their different COVID strategies did not end up mattering much." After the pandemic, a survey of gains and losses. Exhibit 4 Sensitivity analysis: ratios of daily COVID-19 case incidence per 100,000 people between matched counties with and without masking mandates, overall and by county type, among a subset of . Is the Subject Area "COVID 19" applicable to this article? If youve been vaccinated and still feel mortally threatened by the virus, please read this. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. Here's what it could mean for all of us. ", More: Fact check: Masks and vaccines are effective at combating COVID-19 spread, Reed said the CDC's reportdid not examine the effectiveness of masks.. Mask adherence was classified as low if in the lowest quartile and as high if in the highest quartile. The 2-week rate in July in Arizona = 43,088 cases/7,278,717 population in 2019 = 0.00592 or 592 per 100,000. Over a third of states are ending COVID-19 mask mandates. Similar reductions in odds of high COVID-19 rates in August and September were observed for July and August mask adherence, respectively. Though many have taken fresh steps to contain the virus since then, the Times analysis compares cases and hospitalizations for a given date to a states index score from two weeks before, since researchers say it is reasonable to expect a lag between a policy's implementation and its outcome. The state initially reported high case rates, but turned things around are more people began to wear masks. No, PLOS is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) corporation, #C2354500, based in San Francisco, California, US, Corrections, Expressions of Concern, and Retractions, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/these-are-the-states-with-mask-mandates, https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/, https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/CovidEconomics43.pdf, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend, https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2020.v14i2.7761, https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36/data, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/county-level-data-sets/download-data/, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html#thresholds, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/index.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fneed-extra-precautions%2Fpeople-at-increased-risk.html. However, you should continue to wear your mask in crowded public areas and when meeting unvaccinated people. Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. Another consideration is that access to COVID-19 testing appears to vary from state to state [21]. Though demographic factors were measured as proportions of the population, even if they were considered to be indicators for individual level characteristics, they do not denote an inherent biologic association with the outcome and more likely reflect structural inequities that lead to higher rates of infection in minoritized populations. | Sources: Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. | Five states are rolling back mask mandates. Coronavirus: How R-0 can be used to fight COVID-19. One state is the lone holdout. As of Aug. 3, Louisiana is under a temporary statewide mask mandate required of all people, including those who are vaccinated, when indoors. Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. OAN spokesman Charles Herring said the outlet linked to the study "so viewers could read the CDC report in its entirety. Yes Daniella Amato is a biomedical scientist and fact checker with expertise in pharmaceuticals and clinical research. Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, reflecting what experts say is a lag between new policies and results. Based on CDC at-risk guidelines for COVID-19 [20], we considered non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, age, and population density as potential confounders. Gov. In addition, Hawaii and Oregon, which have both implemented school mask. In contrast, 25% or fewer states with a mask wearing policy had high COVID-19 rates, except in September when over half experienced high rates. | Sources: Note: The position for a state on a given date reflects the 7-day average of cases on that date and the containment index value from two weeks prior, to account for a lag between policies and outcomes. No, Is the Subject Area "United States" applicable to this article? Higher mask use did not predict lower maximum growth rates, smaller surges, or . Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. Because stay-at-home order, mask wearing policy, mask adherence, and COVID-19 rates can vary from month to month, we listed those states with consistent classifications across the period April through September (or May through October for COVID-19 rates). States in COVID-19 high-risk categories are listed in Table 1. Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America, Roles A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found a link between face mask mandates and a reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths, but at least one widely shared report wrongly interprets that data. That's not nothing, but it's a pretty modest effect, and it was achieved with surgical masks worn by adults in conditions that encouraged proper and consistent use. We thank Dr. Julia Raifman Boston University School of Public Health for developing, maintaining, and providing open access to the COVID-19 US State Policy Database. Methodology, 3.1.2023 11:20 AM, Elizabeth Nolan Brown The animation below shows how average daily cases have changed relative to containment measures in every state over the course of the pandemic. Our observed associations should influence policy-makers and contribute to public health messaging by government officials and the media that mask wearing is a key component of COVID-19 mitigation. It also examined the link between allowing on-site restaurant dining and the number of coronavirus cases and deaths. After briefly ramping up restrictions closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools in March, when most other states did, Gov. PLoS ONE 16(4): Of the 15 states with no mask policy from April through September, 14 reported high COVID-19 rates in at least one month from May to October. Theyre not looking at masks in and of themselves," Josh Petrie, research professor in the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, told USA TODAY. Weak recent containment measures and many cases. As of yesterday,The New York Times reports, every state that required people to wear face masks in public places and/or in schools during this winter's COVID-19 surge has decided to lift those mandates, with the exception of Hawaii. In Maryland , Gov. He Kept Quiet. For mask adherence levels, we utilized the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Projections online database [15], which holds data collected by Facebook Global in partnership with the University of Maryland Social Data Science Center [16]. The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting. An Annals of Epidemiology study published last May found that mask mandates in the United States were associated with lower transmission rates from June through September 2020. Because high COVID rates were reported by only eight states in May and four states in June, we did not examine mask adherence or policy in the preceding April or May. At its highest level of containment efforts, New York state scored an 80 on the index. The 10th Amendment's anti-commandeering provision bars "the federal government from . Theyre suffering from mask dependency, as this psychological affliction is termed in Japan, where a long tradition of mask-wearing during flu season has left some individuals afraid at any time to expose their faces in public. A new study finds that states with high rates of mask-wearing experienced fewer COVID-19 cases. Wearing masks is a CDC-recommended* approach to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by reducing the spread of respiratory droplets into the air when a person coughs, sneezes, or talks and by reducing the inhalation of these droplets by the wearer. The weaker associations for mask policy may reflect the lack of a unified policy across all states and D.C. and the inconsistent messaging by the media and government leaders. Yes Heres How Doctors With Kids Are Navigating the New Mask Guidance. After reopening early, some Sun Belt states, including Arizona and Texas, imposed restrictions again after case counts climbed. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. The findings were published in the journal PLOS One in April. We calculated the number of new cases in each month, for each state and D.C. Rates were the number of new cases divided by the population in 2019. 2 minute read. Even if masking works, that does not necessarily mean mandates do. These results were suggestive of an effect with a permutation-based P -value of 0.094. Specifically, we created the following categories: >15% non-Hispanic Black, >15% Hispanic, median age >40 years, and population density >200 people per square mile, which corresponded to 74.5%, 78.4%, 82.4%, and 78.4% of the distributions, respectively. But "few studies assessed compliance to mask wearing policies or controlled for the possible influence of other preventive measures such as hand hygiene and physical distancing.". Many have also done the least to contain the virus. 3.1.2023 2:50 PM, David McGarry Overall, there is no obvious difference between states with mask mandates and states without them. States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks. Containment measures are as of Nov. 1. Laboratory studies indicate that masks, especially N95 respirators, can help reduce virus transmission. The authors found that the growth rate of new coronavirus cases and deaths dropped after mask mandates were put in place. Covering up may give the maskaholics a false sense of securitybut they could breathe more easily if theyd just face the facts. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement basic measures like mask mandates in the first place, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the University of Oxford. If you add up all the numbers on those two lines, you find that the mask mandates made zero difference. This association between high mask adherence and reduced COVID-19 rates should influence policy makers and public health officials to focus on ways to improve mask adherence across the population in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Copyright: 2021 Fischer et al. The book documents how mask mandates were implemented without scientific justification, how they failed around the world, and how public officials and journalists have kept making fools of themselves by pretending otherwise. I think timing really matters for the decisions.. Over the course of the pandemic, both Iowa and Florida have done better than the national average in measures of Covid mortality as well as overall excess mortality (the number of deaths more than normal from all causes). Nevertheless, it is possible that average mask adherence in a given month does not capture the most effective time period that influences COVID-19 rates. One of the biggest problems in the United States so far has been the lack of a coherent, cohesive national response, said Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiologist at Columbia University. Data Availability: Data are available in the paper and its Supporting Information file. If Florida's case numbers understate the true number of infections more than California's do, that could partially explain the difference in COVID-19 deaths per capita. States with mask mandates saw higher mask adherence. We thank Drs. Explaining the justification for lifting mask requirements, governors and public health agencies generally have cited the precipitous decline in daily new cases since mid-January. While the downtrend could also have been a result of other countermeasures like social distancing, Kansas' findings mirror observations from other states and countries. Yes In August 2020, the Congressional Research Service also wrote that federal constitutional precedents made it unlikely that the federal government could issue a national mask wearing mandate that applies to the states. Gavin Newsom ordered the nation's first statewide shutdown because of the coronavirus, masks remain mandated, indoor dining and other activities are significantly limited, and Disneyland remains closed. But there is little evidence that mask mandates had much to do with that drop. The current study . Just as in the United States, the mask mandates in Germany produced no net benefits but plenty of inconvenience as well as outright harm. The graph for New York, which also had a statewide mask mandate, looks very much like the graph for California, but with an earlier peak. John Bel Edwards emergency order will . "Unfortunately, the virus hasnt gone away and is still easily transmissible. Taiwan recently recorded 200 days without a new coronavirus case after its leaders focused on a speedy response and invested in mass testing and contact tracing. The pandemic planners at the United Kingdoms Department of Health had reached a similar conclusion: In line with the scientific evidence, the Government will not stockpile facemasks for general use in the community. Anthony Fauci acknowledged this evidence early in the pandemic, both in his public comments (Theres no reason to be walking around with masks, he told 60 Minutes) and in his private emails (I do not recommend you wear a mask, he told a colleague, explaining that masks were too porous to block the small Covid virus). On the other hand, Hawaii and Connecticut had two of the longest mask mandates and also some of the lowest per capita case counts of all the states. Here's What's Safe and What You Should Avoid, How To Plan a COVID-Safe Gathering When Not Everyone Is Vaccinated. Further analyses of more granular geographic regions would be a logical next step. Their cumulative rates of Covid mortality were virtually identical, too (in fact, there were slightly more deaths per capita in the states with mask mandates). You cansubscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. The researchers found that 14 of the 15 states with no mask mandates had high COVID-19 rates for at least one month during the study period. I dont know what factors influenced this dramatic change in mask-wearing, but our data show their COVID-19 rates subsequently plummeted.. February 28, 2023 at 5:55 am EST. Yes Mandating masks gave the illusion of doing something against the virus. For the most recent updates on COVID-19, visit our coronavirus news page. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for average mask adherence and mask policy for the general public are associated with high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month (Table 3). So theres a need to make decisions and be decisive, Dr. El-Sadr said. So could age demographics: The median age of Florida's population is 42.5, compared to 37 in California. We also identified states with average mask adherence 75% in a given month. Writing original draft, Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Uruguay, Chile, Poland, and Hungary were all hailed as models of scientific enlightenment for their low infection rates and strict mask policiesuntil, as usual, the masks suddenly lost their magical power. One America News Network on March 7 published an article under the headline CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers. The post claims the CDC has admitted face masks do little to prevent the spread of COVID-19 amid mounting pressure to lift mask mandates across the U.S., Butthe CDCs study doesnt say that. Wearing a mask may still give some people a sense of security, but they could breathe more easily if theyd face the facts. Thank you for supporting our journalism. For all 50 states and D.C., data on mask wearing and physical distance policies, mask adherence, COVID-19 cases, and demographics were abstracted from publicly available sources. Rhode Island, where I live, has had a mask mandate since mid-December; nonetheless, we saw our January surge rise far higher than any other state. | 3.1.2023 9:15 AM, Joe Lancaster The claim: CDC study found that face masks have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19. The index does not evaluate the effectiveness of individual policies. ", An August 2021 systematic review of 21 observational studies found that all of them "reported SARS-CoV-2 benefits" from mask mandates "in terms of reductions in either the incidence, hospitalization, or mortality, or a combination of these outcomes." Swedens initial Covid surge was blamed on those lax policies, but Sweden stuck to them and actually discouraged masks in most situations. The data we now have conclusively show that widespread use of masks is a very effective way to reduce the spread of COVID-19, CDC spokeswoman Jasmine Reed wrote in an email to USA TODAY. Using an index that tracks policy responses to the pandemic, these charts show the number of new virus cases and hospitalizations in each state relative to the states recent containment measures. When the state faced a surge of cases over the summer, the governor closed bars and placed limits on restaurant capacity. Many of the states without a mask mandate had low mask adherence and high COVID-19 rates. This protective effect of mask wearing was evident across four months of the pandemic, even after adjusting the associations for mask policy, distance policy, and demographic factors. Jacob Sullum is a senior editor at Reason. We observed some benefit of mask policy on COVID-19 rates, but the findings were unstable. Thus, adherence to mask wearing in public remains a challenge for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Massachusetts. The masks in Germany obviously didnt beat Covid. From the start of the pandemic through this spring, the cumulative rate of Covid mortality has been slightly higher in Sweden than in Germany (by about 15 percent), but the rate of overall excess mortality has been slightly higher in Germany (by about 8 percent). Investigation, Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. Costs vs. benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns and mask mandates revealed in new research Thu, 01/12/2023 LAWRENCE Beginning in 2020, most state governors ordered lockdowns and mask mandates to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Eleven states never mandated masks, while the other 39 states enforced mandates. COVID case rates in districts with no mask mandate: Potterville Public Schools: 30% Ovid-Elsie Area Schools: 21% Charlotte Public Schools: 19% Pewamo-Westphalia Community Schools: 13% St.. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus transmission. When the initial spring wave in 2020 subsided, public officials and journalists claimed that the mandates had worked, and they kept up the pretense even when Covid surged again later that year despite the continuing mandates. More detailed message would go here to provide context for the user and how to proceed. Looking at one state at a time, its possible to track the relationship between coronavirus policy and public health. However, Werler says her team did find substantial amounts of variation that could suggest other factors beyond mandatessuch as political affiliationcould be at play. For demographic data, we dichotomized population proportions at whole values that approximated the highest quartile of the distributions. Eric Boehm Variants of COVID-19 Are Spreading Across the U.S. How to Plan a COVID-Safe Summer Vacation in 2022. We infer that mandates likely did not affect COVID-19 case growth, as growth rates were similar on all days between actual or modeled issuance dates and 6 March 2021. States are issuing a new wave of mask mandates and social restrictions as record numbers of Covid-19 hospitalizations and soaring daily cases strain US medical systems. If youre still not convinced to take off the mask, consider one more graph from Miller. A couple weeks into those lockdowns, countries with new restrictions may be seeing results: The rate of new daily cases has begun to level off or drop in France, Spain, Germany and Italy, though it continues to rise in the United Kingdom. Mean COVID-19 rates for states with 75% mask adherence in the preceding month was 109.26 per 100,000 compared to 249.99 per 100,000 for those with less adherence. 3.1.2023 8:00 AM, 2022 Reason Foundation | Fourteen of the 15 states with no mask wearing policy for the general public for the entire four month period (June through September) reported a high COVID-19 rate. Illinois will lift its face mask requirement on Feb.28 in most indoor places as COVID cases decline in the state, according to Gov. Another recent study published in the Annals of Epidemiology looking at county-level COVID-19 incidence found counties across the U.S. with shorter lockdowns, none at all or without statewide mask mandates when the state reopened were more likely to see a spike in infectious cases during the summer months (the study looked at more than 3,000 counties between June 1 and Sept. 30). Even at small gatherings with unvaccinated people from different bubbles, like graduation parties with relatives from afar and families from the neighborhood, all attendees should wear masks," she says. Jha thinks vaccination rates areanother important factor: While "only 59% of eligible Florida seniors have gotten boosted," he notes, the rate for California is 70 percent. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Charlie B. Fischer, When Can I Go to the Movie Theater Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? (Andy Wong) HONG KONG (AP) Hong Kong will lift its mask mandate on Wednesday, ending the city's last major restriction imposed during the . "Their perspective on the study and results to me are contrary to what was stated in the actual study itself," Bisesi said. Investigation, The graph tracks the results of a natural experiment that occurred nationwide during the pandemic. We dichotomized population proportions at whole values that approximated covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without highest quartile research examines mask in... Fully Vaccinated R-0 can be used to fight COVID-19 adherence and high COVID-19 rates but! Mandate policies and results benefit of mask policy on COVID-19, visit our coronavirus news page it also the... Across the country, indoor mask requirements in blue states are ending mask! As high if in the One America news Network report says the,! Would go here to provide context for the user and How to Plan a summer. At first blush, '' Jha says, it analyzed the connection between mask ban... Time, its possible to track the relationship between coronavirus policy and health... The study `` so viewers could read the CDC report in its entirety in the state faced a of. Looks like their different COVID strategies did not predict lower maximum growth rates, smaller covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without,.! A sense of securitybut they could breathe more easily if theyd just face facts. New study finds that states with average mask adherence was classified as low if the... Policies and outcomes do with that drop lockdown-style policies need to be survey of gains and losses will lift face... Feel mortally threatened by the virus still give some people a sense of securitybut they could breathe more if... When meeting unvaccinated people: Note: state containment measures are shown two. Level of containment efforts, new York state scored an 80 on the spread of COVID-19 to take off mask... Predict lower maximum growth rates, but Sweden stuck to them and actually discouraged in. 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Experts say is a journalist specializing in health and science news our research examines mask wearing in remains! Network report says the opposite, noting the least to contain the virus hasnt gone away is..., we dichotomized population proportions at whole values that approximated the highest quartile of the states a... For a lag between policies and results imposed restrictions again after Being Fully Vaccinated claim that a study! And still feel mortally threatened by the virus, please read this have also done the to. A new study finds that states with mask mandates Saw Fewer Summertime COVID cases.! Maximum growth rates, but the findings were published in the One America news Network report says opposite... Mask policy on COVID-19, visit our coronavirus news page, please this!, is the Subject Area `` United states '' applicable to this article its. States in COVID-19 high-risk categories are listed in Table 1 the 2-week rate in July Arizona... 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