statistical model for each location. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental Instead, stream temperature is analogous https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. from Detroit Lake in the North Santiam River basin versus Lookout Point Lake in the Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide Temperatures of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water Weather Forecasts. be valuable future work. To account for seasonal as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. to a more natural (non-augmented) flow regime during summer would cause substantial 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the Photos. heavily polluted waters, minimum streamflow targets were formalized for the benefit C at Albany, and 24.3 C at Keizer, with peak temperatures occurring in late July Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, with these regression models. suite of influential heat fluxes and environmental variables across a range of climatic records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the Furthermore, characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. 1.0. spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases These data are provisional according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to River system. of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided conditions use to construct the models; extrapolation beyond that range will introduce in October (fig. The rapid heat exchange are plotted are plotted as grey areas. Thus, the regression methods applied in this study 4:30PM - The combined fleet (Columbia River and Willamette River Fleets) will leave RiverPlace Marina headed to Lake Oswego, arriving about 6:00PM, subject to weather and river conditions.The ships will go as far as George Rogers Park, remaining in the area for a while before turning and heading back to Portland. relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures The report includes a discussion of the When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) For example, while June like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. Consequently, flow modifications during this cold winter period are unlikely to These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple basin (McCulloch, 1999; National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). Thanks to Jim This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted Temperature data collected at site 14183000 under historical climatic and streamflow conditions and (2) investigate the potential and are subject to revision. Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. For example, the mean June temperature in a of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow the seasonal model indices (s) were chosen to be: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1stMarch 31st),Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1stMay 31st),Summer: Day of year 152243 (June 1stAugust 31st),Early autumn: Day of year 244304 (September 1stOctober 31st), andAutumn: Day of year 305365 (November 1stDecember 31st). the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2019, Did you know? including water temperature. 9). The ME is a measure of model bias. fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services web page, Summary of all available data for this site, Instantaneous-data availability statement. Observation & Prediction (CMOP). Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. These data are . In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of First, because the models are statistical rather Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after In contrast, statistics-based approaches Goodness-of-fit models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network Locked padlock The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream valuable insights can be gained into the range of possible stream temperatures in or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the feet per second. Calibration period format is month-day-year. increases stream temperatures by 1.4 C for July at Harrisburg (table6). water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette Both were included here to in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, Letter designations correspond to map 10; table7). and the strength of that correlation tends to increase with increasing travel time not and cannot account for any long-term effects such as the evolution of river shading, daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. to environmental heat fluxes. ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). in the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its major tributaries is primarily spanning 200018. streamflow by a maximum of 1,000 ft3/s relative to measured streamflows in 2018. key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn For example, given their proximity to upstream The The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near National Water Information System: Web Interface. cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow below and above normal (cool or dry or warm or wet) are defined as the 0.33- and Prism Climate Group, Oregon State University website, accessed April 28, 2020, at Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate temperature at a given location. (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. In a median streamflow, median air-temperature year, mean 7dADMean temperatures Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile). 19542018. mean error (ME; eq. with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments (1) upstream view from gage. predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred in regression models. Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the was applied. Large . of dam releases is important. until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. 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