Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. Cookie used to remember the user's Disqus login credentials across websites that use Disqus. This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. That deficit is about the same amount of precipitation that falls across Utah in an entire year. Azure sets this cookie for routing production traffic by specifying the production slot. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. Glen Canyon Dam can release water below minimum power pool through bypass jets until an elevation of 3,370 feet, which is then the top of dead pool and no further water can be released. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. JOHN DANKOSKY: So you know, with so many stories like this, we say, this is probably due to climate change. The lake that once covered 400 square miles has shrunk 90 percent, leaving behind oxygen-deprived, highly salinized water with a rotten-egg odor that permeates the surrounding area. Every year, it stores water that flows downstream from the four Upper Basin states. And that sponge is very dry right now, and its sucking up all of that water before it can be used as water supply. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. The Colorado River systems reservoirs combined arecurrently less than half full. This segment is part ofThe State of Science, a series featuring science stories from public radio stations across the United States. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. An acre-foot is 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water that will flood an acre of land to a depth of one foot. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. The water level on Lake Powell is 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. It does not store any personal data. Extremely dry years that produce eye-popping statistics tend to grab officials by the shoulders and give them a good shake. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . The study was financed by the district, which is based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, along with the Southwestern Water Conservation District in Durango, and four water groups in Western Colorado that represent various interests. Now what? It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. As part of 2019s Drought Contingency Plan, water managers agreed that the reservoirs water should be kept above 3,525 feet to provide a buffer before it got even lower, giving the agencies in charge some time to come up with a fix. Whether the six-year cycle of 2000-05 repeats itself is anybodys guess, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. Lake Mead's water levels were 1,047.38 feet as of February 23. Correction 01/16/23 10:56 a.m. LinkedIn sets this cookie from LinkedIn share buttons and ad tags to recognize browser ID. . So the upper watershed, you have the headwater states. The vast stripe rimming Powell is a testament to how far its level has dropped since 2000, when the Colorado's flows began a steady decline in response to persistent drought, warming temperatures. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. In addition, the river itself experiences more evaporation. In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. And it takes several years of good weather in order to bring the system out of drought. How does climate change affect you? A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. Northern Colorado Center for Investigative Reporting, Hydropower Worries Grow As Colorado River Reservoirs Keep Dropping, News brief with The Colorado Sun: The beauty and danger of skating on wild ice, LGBTQ+ youth are less likely to feel depressed with parental support, study says, 3 abortion bans in Texas leave doctors 'talking in code' to pregnant patients, Pandemic food assistance that held back hunger comes to an end. They werent able to come up with an agreement. Kathryn Sorensen, research director at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, said it will push water managers further in the direction of finding more permanent solutions. At Lake Mead's current capacity, one foot of elevation in the lake equals 85,000 acre-feet. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. This cookie is used for load balancing purposes. What is the current status of Lake Powell? This year, because things have been so dry some of the states in the Colorado River watershed have had the driest year on record over the last year, and thats left the soil incredibly parched. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. The Glen Canyon Dam, D'deest'in Htsaa, marks where the water level in Lake Powell on the Colorado River, reaches. Creosote is one I personally like to call it the cockroach of the vegetation world because pretty much nothing kills creosote. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. More. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. By the end of the summer, its projected to be even lower, at 29% of its capacity, which is a record low. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. A variation of the _gat cookie set by Google Analytics and Google Tag Manager to allow website owners to track visitor behaviour and measure site performance. If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. That year is the deadline for water users to negotiate a new set of managing guidelines for the Colorado River. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. Its lagging in both the Upper and Lower basins, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects much of the watershed totilt toward hotter and drier weatherfor the rest of the winter. Lake Powell is the town's lifeline. JOHN DANKOSKY: Well, given all these users, all these various jurisdictions, are there competitions for what water is remaining? I'm not sure a lot of Las Vega. However, he said the biggest impact will be the water. Those are Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah. We are likely witnessing the end of Lake Powell as we knew it in the 80s and 90s, Balken said. Water levels at . A pair of before and after photos at Lake Powell . This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. The droughts that we are seeing are becoming that much more severe because of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger said. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . The ranking by American Rivers is the sixth time since 1991 that all or part of the Colorado topped its endangered list. Lake Powell's feeble condition is part of a climate reckoning in the West that links water, ecosystems, food production, and energy generation. And it doesnt allow ratepayers who rely on power production from the canyon to be forward-thinking and operate under conditions of certainty., Cities, farmers and fish all need certainty when it comes to water, and this is the opposite of certainty, Hawes said. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. It will be painful but it doesn't mean the area can't thrive. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. And so when you have snow thats melting off, it gets soaked up into the ground before it flows into a river or flows into a reservoir. If decision makers do nothing and take no action and just let the reservoir crash without structurally modifying the dam, there will be a lot of really big problems.. How they disrupt our daily life, fuel disasters. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. And what does that mean for the users on the river? Big Water, Utah It's hard to believe a place as beautiful as Lake Powell is also a shadow of its former self. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. In the long term, probably not. Definitions explained. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? Its also headed toward a record low later this year. Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir and a key source of water and power for much of the West, is more parched than ever.Earlier this month, the lake dropped below 25% capacity . This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. He covers the Colorado River basin. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. JOHN DANKOSKY: When you use the term megadrought, that sounds like a newer term. In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. The nation's second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. These cookies do not allow the tracking of navigation on other websites and the data collected is not combined or shared with third parties. Contact reporter Tony Davis at tdavis@tucson.com or 806-7746. That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. The Lower Basins legal share is 7.5 million acre feet a year. So water from the Colorado River is now pumped across the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project (CAP). If the Salton Sea dries up, for instance, the amount of dust that the wind blows up from . The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. After seeing 30 inches of rain in one day in Louisiana, 20 inches in Houston, unprecedented drought in California over the last 5 years, not to mention the flow reductions in Colorado River, Udall said, I think we need to seriously consider water-related climatic events that have no historical precedent.. Its not quite as bad as 2002, she said, but it could easily get there. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. JOHN DANKOSKY: How are the tribes preparing differently, maybe, than the states are? The combined reservoirs in Utah are below 50% full. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. The word unprecedented gets thrown around a lot in discussions about the Colorado River these days, and this is no exception. Lakes Mead and Powell. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. For the Upper Basin states, the reservoir storage has ensured theyll be able to meet their legal requirement under the 1922 Colorado River Compact to deliver 75 million acre feet to the Lower Basin every 10 years. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. That could cripple the ability of the Colorado Rivers four Upper Basin states to deliver river water to the Lower Basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada, as theyre legally obligated to do. "Climate change makes these extreme weather events both more frequent and more severe, '' Matthew Casale, Environment Campaigns Director at non-profit advocacy group PIRG, previously told Newsweek. Dry soils soak up snow when it melts, keeping it from rivers and reservoirs. And its split into two watersheds. This cookie is set by the provider Akamai Bot Manager. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. Lake Powell is hemmed by the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates hydroelectric power via the dam's water flowing through the dam back into the Colorado River. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. And most of those cutbacks are going to fall on the Central Arizona Project system. Weve seen declines in snowpack at the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries. LinkedIn sets this cookie to remember a user's language setting. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, and this is a question that has been of intense interest to climate scientists. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. 100 feet from its high mark in August 2013 85,000 acre-feet Powell are at record lows from six other states. These various jurisdictions, are there competitions for what water is remaining this story indicated that 3,490 feet Lake. An entire year that all or part of the temperature component, theyre warmer, Bolinger.... Later this year, Colorado River Basin the end of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Powell! Lower Basin states we do n't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado these! Lake Mead what happens if lake powell dries up level is 1,047 feet above sea level GDPR cookie Consent plugin a deficit! 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