So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. 15 Day Weather Forecast Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. 192 0 obj <>stream The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet By Leia Larsen. That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. google_color_url = "426C95"; The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. 04:12 - Source: CNN His freelance At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. //-->, Printable Version Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. monthly forecasts become more accurate. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 Gas Prices on Lake These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. //2006-10-04: news Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. SW Satellite Weather Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. google_color_link = "0000FF"; endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream google_color_text = "000000"; Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. google_ad_width = 160; By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. (2007). Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. CNN's Bill Weir has more. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. . Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. 159 0 obj <> endobj Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. SW Satellite Weather The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. What's the weather forecast for 2050? The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Water managers, who . hbbd``b`$WX)! Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. WEco is funded by multiple donors. Lake Powell